🔗 Share this article

A mere two months in the past when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while Unai Emery berated him for missing a pass in behind. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, the question was if Rogers' form were a sign or the source of the side's broader struggles.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

In the latest match, though, the sideline response proved to be far more favourable. After Rogers swept in his second to restore the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa were on their way to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win their opening six fixtures, now sit just three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.

Is This Team Serious Title Contenders?

It remains a rather hard query to address. Past precedent, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, even as the positive results have piled up.

Per statistical analysis, twice all season has the team posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team who have put together a ten-match winning streak, Villa seem curiously susceptible – yet currently the tight outcomes are falling their way.

The Rogers Recipe

Their recent policy appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for their star man to save the day with two crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and once more versus United.

His opener came from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Is It Sustainable?

Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge the club will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, surely, cannot maintain thrashing his shots into the top corner week in, week out.

Potential for Growth

Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.

• The centre-forward might resume scoring again.
• The attacking talent could transform into the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky defence.

Maybe within that lies the potential of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.

Savoring the Moment

However, this was unforeseen. Few believed Aston Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, no one envisioned the young forward now would be leading a championship pursuit and appearing as a vital player for the national team.

The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner faced the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.